This look at the Cardinals players, by position, covers the best-laid plans, and where things can go awry.聽
The team should have stability around the horn with a rookie set to take over at shortstop. However, the outfield situation could be fluid to start the season. Depth is always crucial on the pitching side, perhaps even more so with the age of this year's staff.
Starting pitchers
IF THINGS ARE RUNNING SMOOTHLY
The Cardinals are banking on the rotation鈥檚 ability to provide innings on a nightly basis and preserve the bullpen more than was the case last season. They added proven innings eaters and veteran starters Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn through free agency.
Miles Mikolas, one of two holdovers from last year鈥檚 rotation, pitched 200 innings for the third time in the past five full-length seasons. An All-Star in 2022, Mikolas was hurt by the Cardinals鈥 defensive dropoff in 2023. Improved defense should help bolster his performance.
People are also reading…
Left-hander Steven Matz, the other returning starter, temporarily moved to the bullpen because of ineffectiveness last season. When he returned to the rotation, he strung together a stellar run of seven starts with an ERA below 2.00 and an opponents鈥 batting average of .190. If Matz can recapture what he found during that stretch, he鈥檚 a force in the rotation.
Gray, last year鈥檚 AL Cy Young runner-up, gives the Cardinals a frontline starter. Gibson has been a solid reliable starter for more than a decade in the majors. Lynn had rocky results last season, but last season could be considered an outlier year based on several statistics. He鈥檚 a bounceback candidate this season.
WHERE IT COULD GO OFF THE RAILS
The Cardinals' projected rotation features three pitchers 35 or older, and all five starters are at least 32 years old. The threat of pitchers breaking down is always real. At their age, the likelihood only seems to increase. Gray had a hamstring issue before spring training even got to its final week.
Along with concerns about age and injury, there鈥檚 the added angst of pitchers like Lynn and Mikolas coming off years where their statistics dipped significantly. That raises questions about whether they鈥檝e simply entered the inevitable decline that comes with age.
Matz had a great stretch last summer, but he鈥檚 had injury issues and was very inconsistent during the first part of last season.
When the Cardinals turn to their depth, they鈥檒l likely reach into a group that includes pitchers who鈥檝e shown flashes of potential and ultimately been inconsistent such as Zack Thompson and Matthew Liberatore, or they鈥檒l rely on inexperienced pitchers with varying degrees of success in the upper levels of the minors such as Drew Rom, Gordon Graceffo, Sem Robberse, Tekoah Roby and Mike McGreevy.
The Cardinals could be playing with fire with this combination of older starters and inexperienced depth.
Bullpen
IF THINGS ARE RUNNING SMOOTHLY
The Cardinals revamped their bullpen this offseason with veteran additions, and they鈥檒l hope to have a full season of former All-Star closer Ryan Helsley at the back end.
Giovanny Gallegos battled some inconsistency in the first year of the pitch timer, but he has been maybe the club鈥檚 most reliable reliever since the start of 2019. Last season, left-hander JoJo Romero showed the ability to be a high-leverage reliever capable of closing games.
The bullpen added proven relievers Keynan Middleton and Andrew Kittredge. Both have closed games in the majors, and Kittredge was an All-Star in 2021 with the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Cardinals also acquired pitchers Riley O鈥橞rien, Nick Robertson and Ryan Fernandez (a Rule 5 draft pick), who have the potential to add more swing-and-miss to a pitching staff that sorely lacked it last season.
Left-hander John King pitched well down the stretch last season after the Cardinals acquired him from the Texas Rangers. Andre Pallante had up-and-down results last season, including a 1.59 ERA in nine appearances in May, but he has a track record of getting weak contact from both right- and left-handed hitters.
WHERE IT COULD GO OFF THE RAILS
The Cardinals will have Middleton on the injured list to start the season with a forearm strain. While there's optimism from the club it won't cost Middleton an extended period of time, every injury comes with uncertainty.
Helsley missed a lot of time due to injury last season, and he had more blown saves (five) than the entire previous season despite fewer appearances.
If Helsley doesn鈥檛 return to his previous form or misses significant time again, that puts more pressure on Gallegos to have a bounceback season and for Romero to step into even more high-leverage situations.
Romero pitched well late last season, but he doesn鈥檛 have an extensive track record of success in the majors. Neither do Robertson, Fernandez nor O鈥橞rien.
Kittredge had Tommy John surgery in 2022, and he has made just 31 appearances in the majors since the end of the 2021 season.
Pallante鈥檚 metrics paint a different picture than his actual results, but the results weren鈥檛 always pretty. Right-handed hitters batted .357 with a .444 on-base percentage against him in the majors last season.
In the second half, all opposing hitters batted .297 against him. If those sort of struggles continue, the Cardinals will have difficulty relying on him in pivotal situations.
John King鈥檚 results prior to his 20-game stretch with the Cardinals last summer weren鈥檛 nearly as strong. If that stretch was the exception rather than the rule, he could have trouble duplicating the production he gave them in 2023 (1.45 ERA).
Catcher
IF THINGS ARE RUNNING SMOOTHLY
Willson Contreras returns for his second year as the club鈥檚 starting catcher, and he鈥檒l handle the bulk of the catching duties.
He has made changes in effort to improve his poor pitch framing statistics, and this will be his second season working with the Cardinals staff and pitchers on game planning. Game planning and preparation were the reasons given for his temporary benching in May 2023.
Contreras remains among the top third of catch-and-throw catchers when it comes to controlling the running game.
Offensively, Contreras struggled early last season. From opening day through June 12, Contreras batted .201 with a .352 slugging percentage, a .645 OPS and seven home runs. He turned it around in the middle of the summer. From June 13 through the end of the season, Contreras batted .330, slugged .589 and posted an OPS of 1.013 with 13 home runs.
The Cardinals did not tender a contract to former backup catcher Andrew Knizner, who subsequently signed with the Texas Rangers.
That paved the way for Ivan Herrera to step in as the second catcher. Herrera will combine with Contreras to form a catching tandem. Herrera made huge strides with his preparation last season. Herrera posted a .951 OPS last season in the minors.
WHERE IT COULD GO OFF THE RAILS
Contreras has spent parts of eight seasons in the majors and caught more than 5,700 innings. He鈥檚 got a wealth of experience and a track record that includes three All-Star selections and five 20-home run seasons.
After Contreras, the Cardinals catchers have a grand total of 24 games of big league experience and just 151 innings behind the plate.
Herrera has been called up to the majors in each of the previous two seasons, but he played in only 11 games in 2022 with six starts and 13 games in 2023 with 10 starts.
Herrera hasn鈥檛 played in more than 99 games in any season in the Cardinals farm system. Even including winter ball, he has never played more than 106 games in a season.
The only other catcher on the club鈥檚 40-man roster entering the spring training, Pedro Pages, has not played in a major league game.
The catching depth behind Contreras lacks major league experience, and neither of their backup catchers have carried the workload behind the plate that they鈥檇 face if Contreras missed significant time due to injury.
First base
IF THINGS ARE RUNNING SMOOTHLY
Cornerstone seven-time All-Star Paul Goldschmidt is going into his 14th major league season (sixth with the Cardinals) and continues to hold the starting job at first base.
While still very productive last season, Goldschmidt鈥檚 offensive performance dropped off considerably from his MVP season of 2022. He batted .268 last season after having batted .317 the previous season, and his OPS dropped from .981 in 2022 to .810 in 2023. He hit 25 home runs and collected 80 RBIs one year after he collected 35 homers and 115 RBIs.
Several of Goldschmidt鈥檚 advanced analytics (exit velocity, barrel percentage, expected slugging percentage, hard-hit percentage) show he continued to make very high quality contact last season.
Defensively, he still ranks among the top eight in the majors at his position in outs above average and defensive runs prevented. The most recent of his four Gold Gloves came in 2021.
The Cardinals will continue to give Goldschmidt periodic days off his feet as the designated hitter. Veteran left-handed hitter Matt Carpenter returned to the Cardinals as a free agent this winter. Carpenter provides a proven backup option.
WHERE IT COULD GO OFF THE RAILS
If Goldschmidt, 36, misses any significant time, then his primary backup is the 38-year-old Carpenter. Carpenter put up strong statistics in limited playing time in 2022 (a slash line of .305/.412/.727 with 15 home runs in 47 games), but those numbers dropped precipitously last season (.176/.322/.319 with five home runs in 76 games) in 2023.
The Cardinals have other options at first base, though none are well-established at the major league level.
Alec Burleson excelled in the minors and rose quickly through the farm system. The left-handed-hitting Burleson won the International League batting title while playing for Triple-A Memphis in 2022. He batted .331 and also smashed 20 home runs that season. Last season in the majors, Burleson appeared in 107 games (80 starts) and slashed .244/.300/.390.
Luken Baker, last year鈥檚 International League MVP, led all minor leaguers in slugging percentage (.720) and OPS (1.159) while he hit 33 home runs in 84 games at Triple-A. In 33 major league games, Baker has batted .209 with a .313 on-base percentage and a .314 slugging percentage.
Second base
IF THINGS ARE RUNNING SMOOTHLY
The Cardinals entered spring training with two candidates for the starting job who were basically co-incumbents at the position in Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman.
Both of the left-handed-hitting second basemen should be important pieces to the lineup, which makes it highly likely the designated hitter role will factor into their usage.
Gorman led the team in home runs last season with 27 despite playing in just 119 games. He also led the team in slugging percentage (.478), and his 76 RBIs ranked third on the team. Gorman batted .236 with a .328 on-base percentage.
Donovan, who won a Gold Glove Award as a utility player in 2022, seems well-suited for the role of table-setter and leadoff hitter in the Cardinals lineup (.381 on-base percentage in 221 games in the majors). He鈥檚 returning from elbow surgery that prematurely ended his 2023 season, but he still increased his home run total from five in 2022 to 11 in 2023 despite having played in 31 fewer games.
The combination of Donovan and Gorman gives the Cardinals two viable everyday options at second base.
WHERE IT COULD GO OFF THE RAILS
Donovan鈥檚 versatility makes him a candidate to play multiple positions, and he could be pressed into duty in the outfield with injuries to Lars Nootbaar and Tommy Edman putting their availability in question to start the season.
Gorman has a history of back issues that have forced him to miss games. If Donovan is needed elsewhere in the field and Gorman鈥檚 back limits his playing time at second base, the Cardinals have several options to fill in. However, those options aren鈥檛 nearly as proven or as potent offensive contributors as Donovan and Gorman.
Jose Fermin is a defense-first infielder with the ability to play multiple infield positions. At the plate, he鈥檚 much more of a contact hitter than a power presence. He made his major league debut in 2023, and 11 of his 12 hits were singles. He slashed .235/.339/.255 in 21 games (61 plate appearances).
Prospect Thomas Saggese earned Texas League (Double-A) MVP honors in 2023 and hit 26 home runs in 139 games. He鈥檚 an intriguing prospect and has been highly productive in the minors, but he has played just 13 games above Double-A.
Shortstop
IF THINGS ARE RUNNING SMOOTHLY
Rookie shortstop Masyn Winn got a small taste of the majors late last summer. The Cardinals made the decision this winter to turn the reins over to Winn this year, and they even moved previous shortstop Tommy Edman to center field on a full-time basis in order to clear the path for the organization鈥檚 top prospect in 2024.
Winn performed very well in his first exposure to Triple-A pitching last season. After a slow start聽鈥 a slash line of .223/.287/.321 in April聽鈥 Winn heated up at the plate and finished the season with a batting average of .288 to go along with a .359 on-base percentage and a .474 slugging percentage. He also hit 18 home runs and stole 17 bases in 105 games.
A former pitcher, Winn also brings an elite throwing arm to the table. He has recorded throws across the infield at velocities of more than 99 mph.
The Cardinals added a veteran backup at shortstop in four-time Gold Glove winner Brandon Crawford to provide depth.
WHERE IT COULD GO OFF THE RAILS
Winn鈥檚 offense hasn鈥檛 quite made the transition to the majors, at least not in his brief stint late last season. He batted .172 in his first 37 games with the Cardinals. He鈥檚 acknowledged trying to do too much at the plate at times after he earned his promotion to the big leagues.
If Winn can鈥檛 settle in offensively or has to miss an extended period of time, then Crawford has a wealth of experience and has been an excellent defender throughout his career.
However, Crawford struggled last season with the San Francisco Giants.
Physical ailments contributed to the drop in Crawford's production last season聽鈥 the career .250 hitter batted .194聽鈥 so there鈥檚 reason to believe he can bounce back if he's healthy.
If those ailments end up being common occurrence for the 37-year-old infielder, then the Cardinals might find themselves in need of even more depth.
An extended absence for Winn and Father Time zapping Crawford鈥檚 ability to play on a daily basis could be a bad recipe for the Cardinals. Then they could have to explore options such as the glove-first Jose Fermin, who may be better suited for second base, or bat-first prospect Thomas Saggese.
Third base
IF THINGS ARE RUNNING SMOOTHLY
Nolan Arenado鈥檚 2023 season looks like an outlier in a highly successful 11-year career in the majors.
A 10-time Gold Glove Award winner and eight-time All-Star, Arenado is one of the best players at his position in a generation. Even in a down year by his standards, Arenado belted 26 home runs and drove in a team-high 93 runs in 144 games. His .459 slugging percentage also led the Cardinals.
Arenado carried a large share of the offense for an 83-game stretch from early May to mid-August when he slashed .303/.351/.581 with 22 home runs and 68 RBIs.
He鈥檒l likely continue to get regular days off his feet by serving as the designated hitter.
The Cardinals don鈥檛 have a shortage of players with experience at third base. Utility player Brendan Donovan and slugger Nolan Gorman have both logged games at third base, and both should be key contributors to the offense.
Veteran infielder Matt Carpenter returned to the organization this winter, and he gives the team another option at third base.
WHERE IT COULD GO OFF THE RAILS
Arenado is undoubtedly a cornerstone of the club both offensively and defensively. If last season wasn鈥檛 so much an outlier as it was the start of a decline in his production, then Arenado鈥檚 2024 season could be more like last season than his previously stellar seasons. That would be a huge blow to the Cardinals.
The third baseman turns 33 in April, and he鈥檚 already had recurring back issues. His defense dropped off significantly last season. He registered the fewest defensive runs saved of any season of his career. An RBI machine in his career, Arenado batted just .258 and slugged .497 with runners in scoring position.
The Cardinals primary backup options at third base could be relied upon at other positions. Donovan could be needed in the outfield, if not second base, and Gorman likely聽will be at second base if Donovan isn鈥檛.
Any extended period without Arenado at third base could set in motion a game of musical chairs or force the Cardinals to use Carpenter in an everyday role as opposed to the bench role they signed him to fill.
Prospect Thomas Saggese is unproven at the major league level, but the MVP of the Double-A Texas League has the potential to be an impact hitter. He could be forced into the conversation if Arenado missed a large chunk of time.
Outfield
IF THINGS ARE RUNNING SMOOTHLY
The Cardinals declared fairly early this winter that their desired everyday outfield alignment featured Tommy Edman in center field, Lars Nootbaar in left field and Jordan Walker in right field.
Last season, out of necessity, Edman showed the athleticism and aptitude to make the transition from the infield to center field. The Cardinals believe Nootbaar is best suited for a corner outfield position, and Walker devoted a large chunk of his offseason to becoming more comfortable with his transition to the outfield that started late in 2022.
A stable group of outfielders playing regularly should have benefits both offensively, in regard to players getting into a rhythm and having consistent playing time, as well as defensively. Last season, the Cardinals used 12 different players in the outfield and 10 players started multiple games.
Offensively, Nootbaar has flashed the potential to combine great on-base skills with the ability to hit for power. Walker has both the ability to hit for immense power and to be a consistent all-around hitter. Edman, a switch-hitter, has the ability to hit between .260 and .270, hit 10-15 home runs and steal upward of 30 bases while playing well above average defense in the outfield.
Dylan Carlson is an outstanding defender and provides a fourth outfielder capable of playing all three spots.
WHERE IT COULD GO OFF THE RAILS
Injuries began to derail the outfield plans before the season started. Edman鈥檚 offseason surgery will keep him from being active when the season begins. Fractured ribs put Nootbaar鈥檚 status in doubt for the start of the season as well.
Carlson, a switch-hitter who is far more potent batting right-handed than left-handed, could be forced into an everyday role.
Highly regarded prospect and speedster Victor Scott II is an advanced defender and is still learning how to maximize his elite speed as an offensive weapon. He stole 94 bases in the minors last season, but he has just one full season of pro baseball and hasn鈥檛 played above the Double-A level.
Alec Burleson lost weight and put in a lot of work to make himself a viable corner outfielder, and his hitting ability is highly valued by the organization. Brendan Donovan could also be forced to play outfield instead of second base in order to fill in the gap for Nootbaar.
The stability the Cardinals coveted this winter may have begun to fade before the season even started.
Bench
IF THINGS ARE RUNNING SMOOTHLY
The designated hitter role always seemed destined to rotate among several players, even when the roster is fully healthy.
Nolan Gorman could get the lion鈥檚 share of the time if Brendan Donovan regularly plays second base. Older cornerstone veterans Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado will likely take regular turns as designated hitter to keep their bats in the lineup while also keeping them fresh.
Depending upon the way the Cardinals fill in for injuries in the outfield, the DH could also give Alec Burleson an avenue to get regular at-bats.
Veterans Matt Carpenter and Brandon Crawford provide depth at the corner infield and shortstop positions, respectively, as well as experience playing in high-stakes environments. Both have also enjoyed success at a very high level.
Ivan Herrera gives catching depth and Dylan Carlson presumably provides depth at all three outfield positions. If he鈥檚 forced to play every day, Burleson or Donovan could be backup corner outfield options.
WHERE IT COULD GO OFF THE RAILS
If Carlson is needed to fill in an everyday role, that leaves the Cardinals without an experienced backup plan in center field. Prospect Victor Scott II is a speedster and defensive whiz in center field. However, the Cardinals will have to weigh what鈥檚 best for his development. Scott hasn鈥檛 even played a game at Triple-A, and he鈥檚 played just 163 games as a professional. He鈥檇 undoubtedly best be served by playing regularly as opposed to serving in a reserve/bench role.
Outfielder Michael Siani remained on the club鈥檚 40-man roster as of mid-March, and he has established himself as a superior defender in the minor leagues. He had a cup of coffee in the majors (17 games, 29 at-bats) and is capable of handling center field at least in a reserve role.
On the infield, the Cardinals could be one injury away from having to play Carpenter, 38, or Crawford, 37, daily. Both have already shown signs of becoming less productive as everyday players in recent years. They were brought in with specific roles in mind. Having either or both thrust into regular playing time could be rolling the dice with their production as well as their health.
This article is part of the St. 不良研究所导航网址 Cardinals season preview section, which will be in print on Sunday, March 24.