Different from the slow slip from contention and into inevitable disappointment at the end of the past two seasons for the Cardinals, it was the sudden, jarring conclusions of the 2021 and 2022 seasons that Paul Goldschmidt brought up when asked recently about how the chance to win a championship will shape what comes next for the former MVP.
In each of those seasons, the Cardinals reached the wild-card round of the postseason 鈥 and in a blink, it was over. They lost on a walk-off in 2021, and a series slipped away in two days in 2022. Each time, Goldschmidt stood beside teammates, like Andrew Miller in 鈥21 or Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina in 鈥22, who were retiring after the final out. And there it was. Another season ending for him meant there would not be another season for them.
In their eyes and then through their eyes he saw a different meaning of finality.
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鈥淢y stomach kind of hurts thinking about it right now,鈥 Goldschmidt said during a lengthy conversation at this locker in this season鈥檚 closing weekend. 鈥淭he 鈥21 and 鈥22 seasons were very, very heartbreaking ends. Definitely as bad as I鈥檝e ever had. And I think part of that is, in 鈥21 specifically, wanting to keep that season going so those guys could pitch again and play again and have a chance to win. Obviously, I want that myself. You feel this responsibility because it鈥檚 affecting other guys鈥 careers. You want to do it for yourself, for the organization, for the city, for the fans, and all of that, and also for them. That was the first time it was like, oh man, these guys aren鈥檛 that much older than me.
鈥淚t鈥檚 just there,鈥 he concluded about endings. 鈥淵ou can fight it as much as you want, but it鈥檚 coming.鈥
In the hours after this fall鈥檚 World Series, Goldschmidt, at 37, will become a free agent for the first time in his 15 years as a professional ballplayer.
Where his All-Star career ultimately could take him is Cooperstown, New York, but first, this winter, the first baseman will have a chance to choose his address for at least next season. Traded to the Cardinals in December 2018 by Arizona, the team that drafted him in 2009, Goldschmidt signed a five-year, $130 million extension before playing a home game at Busch Stadium. That assured his first 14 years in the majors, his first 1,928 games there and 362 home runs and four Gold Glove Awards, five Silver Sluggers and seven All-Star nods would all happen before he ever hit the open market.
As he does, the Cardinals are plotting a path that diverges from their recent approach 鈥 reducing payroll and skewing young for what they鈥檙e branding as a 鈥渞eset.鈥 Neither side has closed the door completely to his return, but it will take the market or the comfort of familiarity to push them together. Goldschmidt will have other options, and those could include a former club and a boyhood-home club that mean moving away to get closer, in the closing years of his career, to a first pennant and World Series.
鈥淵ou hit the nail on the head with the consideration as your career seems to wind down, you know you just don鈥檛 have as many chances,鈥 Goldschmidt said. 鈥淭hat kind of window is starting to close. When you鈥檙e younger, you think you鈥檙e going to play for years. Even if it鈥檚 five years away, that seems like a long time. I think 2022 really showed it, with Yadi and Albert, and in 2021 with (Jon) Lester, Andrew Miller, J.A. Happ as well, being there for their last game. Those were the first years when I felt like: Oh, my career is starting to be where there are not that many years left. And you see it.鈥
A second consecutive October without the Cardinals arrives at the end of what Goldschmidt has bluntly called his most difficult season individually.
An uptick in production over the final two months did not save his season from cementing career lows across the back of his baseball card. He had the lowest batting average (.245), on-base percentage (.302) and slugging percentage (.414) of his career. For the first time in his career, his overall production ranked below league average.
The Cardinals鈥 offensive issues were widespread but also centrally located around the middle of the order. With runners in scoring position, Goldschmidt hit .203 with a slugging percentage (.280) that was lower than his on-base percentage (.284). He had five extra-base hits with runners in scoring position, down from nine in 2023 and 15 in his MVP summer of 2022. No player had more at-bats with two strikes than Goldschmidt鈥檚 383 鈥 nearly two-thirds of his at-bats 鈥 and in them, he hit .172.
In his final 30 games, he raised his average from the .220s and his on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) from the .670s by hitting .330 and slugging .551 with a .920 OPS. That felt familiar.
鈥淯nfortunately for the team, it鈥檚 too little, too late,鈥 Goldschmidt said before the Cardinals鈥 final game. 鈥淭here鈥檚 no denying if I would have played better this whole year, we would have more wins. Would it have been enough to get us in the playoffs? Nobody really knows what鈥檚 going to happen. But there is a good bit or some responsibility there on me. I don鈥檛 love that.
鈥淚t鈥檚 also part of playing sports and competition. When you play well, you take some of the credit and responsibility, and when you don鈥檛 perform, you鈥檝e got to take some of the blame and responsibility for that, too. Just trying to be honest with the role I have on this team.鈥
He paused, and then added: 鈥淚t was not for lack of effort.鈥
In the second half of 2023, Goldschmidt sensed bad habits creeping into his swing. He described, at the time, a disjointed feeling with how he triggered his swing. Always eager to be proactive, Goldschmidt 鈥 who changed his bat model for the first time in his career ahead of the 2022 season and then won the MVP 鈥 sought out new drills and new tech a year go to get ahead of any slip in his swing. (鈥淚 knew something was a little off,鈥 he said.) He estimated that he started hitting earlier in the offseason and took more swings than previous winters.
And that pursuit did not end when the offseason did.
鈥淚 was having a really hard time finding a way to correct those bad habits,鈥 Goldschmidt explained. 鈥淚t鈥檚 one thing in a batting cage to go, 鈥極K, I鈥檓 going to do this.鈥 And it鈥檚 another when there鈥檚 a ball coming at you at close to 100 mph with movement. ... I tried everything to play better. I tried every drill possible. I watched every video. I tried not looking at video, not doing drills. I tried stuff I did earlier in my career. I tried newer stuff. I think that鈥檚 what you have to do. You鈥檙e just trying to get something that really clicks, and I wanted it to happen where I could perform and help us win.鈥
He also met with the team鈥檚 athletic trainers and coaches to explore if there was a physical limitation, some aging or injury that limited him, and found none.
He鈥檒l resume the work this winter 鈥 likely with fewer swings.
Beneath the wax pack stats, Goldschmidt鈥檚 advanced metrics buoy optimism for a rebound year. He remained in the top 10% of the league for hard-hit rate, and his average exit velocity was higher than his MVP season and in the 80th percentile. Given data like that, his expected slugging percentage per Statcast was .464, down but not far from his .484 slugging in six years with the Cardinals.
Asked if he was confident he could adjust and thrive next season, Goldschmidt was clear:
鈥淗ighly confident.鈥
鈥淚 think I鈥檒l always be confident,鈥 he added. 鈥淵ou have to go out there and prove it.鈥
By rule, clubs cannot reduce a player鈥檚 salary by more than 20% of the previous year without that player reaching free agency. The Cardinals could table a qualifying offer to Goldschmidt, who made $22 million in 2024, but that鈥檚 expected to be around $21 million for a one-year deal at the same time the Cardinals are advertising cost-cutting.
Goldschmidt will enter a free-agent pool rich with talent at first base and potential designated hitters. New York Mets lugger Pete Alonso, at 30, headlines the group, ready to go as far and high as his playoff performance takes him. But also in the mix at former Cubs fixture Anthony Rizzo, Goldschmidt鈥檚 Gold Glove replacement in Arizona Christian Walker and Brewers鈥 bounce-back hitter Rhys Hoskins. Toronto鈥檚 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will draw trade attention.
Among the teams expected to shop for a first baseman are the Astros club Goldschmidt grew up watching in the Houston area and the Yankees. Arizona could lose its first baseman to free agency and need one, and the same goes for the New York Mets.
Arizona came just shy of the playoffs this year after winning the NL pennant a year ago, and the other teams mentioned all reached the postseason.
As Goldschmidt stood at his locker and described what it was like to see the abrupt October end of a teammate鈥檚 career, he listed a handful including Adam Wainwright, Pujols, Molina and Lester. Before that end, they all had a World Series ring. Miller had won a pennant. And they all sought another as members of the Cardinals. Goldschmidt seeks his first.
鈥淗ere in St. 不良研究所导航网址, part of the excitement was we were going to have a chance to win,鈥 Goldschmidt said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 been amazing. The downside is the goal was to bring a championship back here, and we weren鈥檛 able to do that. ... Part of wanting to be here was having the chance to win, and we have. We had a chance every single year. We didn鈥檛 come through all the way. Going into spring training, we鈥檝e really had a chance. And I鈥檓 thankful for that. That is not always the case.
鈥淲e鈥檒l see what happens.鈥